Nadir PSA is a strong predictor of treatment outcome in intermediate and high risk localized prostate cancer patients treated by definitive external beam radiotherapy and androgen deprivation

BACKGROUND The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of tumor characteristics and parameters of treatment response in predicting biochemical disease-free survival (BFS) for patients with intermediate or high risk prostate cancer treated by combined definitive external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). METHODS Between June 1995 and January 2015, 375 patients with localized prostate cancer and a National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate or high risk categories were treated by definitive EBRT and ADT. Median duration of androgen blockade was 10 months (range: 3-36 months); Median radiation dose was 72 Gy (Range: 70-78 Gy). Median follow-up time was 5.8 years (range: 0.8-16.39 years). The main study endpoint was biochemical disease free survival (BFS). RESULTS Forty seven patients (12.5%) developed biochemical recurrence (BCR) during the observation period. Monovariate analysis identified baseline PSA (bPSA) (p = 0.024), T-stage (p = 0.001), Gleason's score (GS) (p = 0.042), radiation dose (p = 0.045), PSA pre-radiation therapy (p = 0.048), and nadir PSA (nPSA), (p < 0.001) as significant variables affecting BCR. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve identified a nPSA of 0.06 ng/ml as optimal cut-off value significantly predicting the patients' risk of BCR (p < 0.001). Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed T-stage, GS, and nPSA as independent variable affecting BFS, while bPSA, age, and radiation dose were not. CONCLUSION Nadir PSA at 0.06 is a strong independent predictor of BFS in patients with intermediate or high risk prostate cancer treated by definitive EBRT and ADT.